National Merit Scholarships: What Michigan Juniors Need to Know About the October PSAT

By Barbara Connolly, JD, CEP

Founder, College Choice Counseling

For many high school students, the PSAT is primarily a practice test—a chance to become familiar with the SAT before taking the test that may ultimately be submitted to colleges.

For high-achieving juniors, however, the PSAT can mean considerably more.

The PSAT/NMSQT (Preliminary SAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test) is the qualifying examination for the National Merit Scholarship Program. For current juniors, the PSAT/NMSQT they take in October 2026 is their opportunity to enter the 2028 National Merit Scholarship competition.

That makes the October PSAT a test worth taking seriously, particularly for students whose scores put National Merit recognition within reach.

What Is the National Merit Scholarship Program?

The National Merit Scholarship Program is a nationwide academic competition that has recognized outstanding high school students since 1955.

Approximately 1.2 million students are expected to enter the 2028 competition by taking the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and meeting the program’s other eligibility requirements.

From that enormous pool, approximately 50,000 high-scoring students will qualify for National Merit recognition. Some will be named Commended Students, while others will advance as National Merit Semifinalists. Semifinalists then have the opportunity to advance to Finalist standing and compete for National Merit Scholarships.

For the 2028 competition, 7,320 scholarships are expected to be offered.

Why Junior Year Matters

Students may take the PSAT before junior year, and doing so can provide valuable testing experience and identify areas for improvement. But for students following the traditional four-year high school schedule, it is the junior-year PSAT/NMSQT that counts for National Merit qualification.

That means juniors have only one opportunity to produce the PSAT/NMSQT score used for National Merit qualification.

How Is the PSAT Scored?

One important difference between the PSAT and SAT is the scoring scale.

While the SAT has a maximum score of 1600, the highest possible PSAT/NMSQT score is 1520.

The PSAT has two sections:

• Reading and Writing: 160–760

• Math: 160–760

By comparison, each SAT section is scored from 200 to 800, for a maximum SAT score of 1600.

The difference in maximum scores does not mean that PSAT scores should simply be converted proportionately into SAT scores. The PSAT and SAT are part of the same College Board SAT Suite and use a common score scale.

As a result, a 700 on a PSAT section represents approximately the same level of achievement as a 700 on the corresponding SAT section if the tests are taken at the same point in time. At the top of the range, however, the comparison becomes less precise because PSAT section scores stop at 760 while SAT section scores extend to 800.

Does Your PSAT Score Predict Your SAT Score?

A PSAT score provides a useful indication of a student's current SAT-level performance, but it should not be viewed as a prediction of the student's eventual SAT ceiling.

Because the PSAT and SAT use a common score scale, a student scoring 700 on a PSAT section would be expected to perform at approximately the 700 level on the corresponding SAT section if the tests were taken at the same point in time.

But most juniors take the PSAT in October, months before taking a spring SAT. During that interval, students have additional months of schooling and academic development and may also undertake deliberate SAT preparation. College Board reports that when students take the SAT at least six months after a PSAT-related assessment, scores generally increase by approximately 20 points per section, or about 40 points overall.

So a 1400 on the October PSAT should be viewed as approximately 1400-level SAT performance at that point in time, not as the student's eventual SAT ceiling. The approximately 40-point average increase is not a guarantee; some students improve considerably more, some less, and some may not improve at all.

This distinction is especially important at the top of the PSAT range. A student earning a perfect 1520 has reached the maximum score the PSAT can report. Because SAT section scores extend from 760 to 800, the PSAT cannot tell us precisely where that student's performance would fall within that additional range.

For National Merit, Your Total PSAT Score Isn’t the Most Important Number

National Merit does not simply use a student’s total PSAT score to determine qualification.

Instead, the National Merit Scholarship Corporation uses a Selection Index calculated from the student’s Reading and Writing and Math section scores.

The formula is:

Selection Index = (2 × Reading and Writing score + Math score) ÷ 10

Or in simple terms, double your reading score, add your math score, and drop the zero. For example, with 720 reading and 750 math:

• You double your reading score, so double 720 is 1440, then

• Add your math score to it, so 1440 plus 750 is 2190, then

• Drop the zero, 2190 becomes 219, which is your Selection Index

The maximum possible Selection Index is 228.

This formula has an important—and sometimes surprising—consequence: Reading and Writing carries twice the weight of Math in determining a student’s National Merit Selection Index.

Consider two students who earn exactly the same 1400 PSAT score:

Student A:

750 Reading/Writing + 650 MathSelection Index: 215

Student B:

650 Reading/Writing + 750 MathSelection Index: 205

Both students have a 1400 PSAT. Yet their National Merit Selection Indexes differ by a substantial 10 points.

For a student pursuing National Merit recognition, understanding this distinction can be extremely important. It also means that effective preparation should consider not merely how to increase a student’s overall PSAT score, but where additional points will have the greatest impact on the student’s Selection Index.

What Score Does a Michigan Student Need?

This is where National Merit qualification becomes more complicated.

There isn’t one nationwide PSAT score that guarantees Semifinalist status. National Merit Semifinalists are selected on a state-representational basis, so qualifying Selection Index scores differ among states and can change from year to year.

The number of Semifinalists allocated to each state is based on that state’s proportion of the nation’s graduating high school seniors. Students therefore compete against the qualifying standard established for their own state.

For Michigan students, recent history provides useful perspective.

Michigan’s National Merit Cutoffs Over the Past 10 Years

Michigan’s National Merit Semifinalist Selection Index cutoff has ranged from 216 to 220 over the past ten graduating classes:

Graduating Class	Michigan Selection Index Cutoff
2017	216
2018	219
2019	219
2020	219
2021	216
2022	217
2023	218
2024	217
2025	218
2026	220

The history is useful, but it should not be mistaken for a prediction.

No one can know in advance what Michigan’s cutoff will be for the 2028 National Merit competition. The cutoff depends upon the performance of students participating in that year’s competition and the National Merit selection process.

Still, the historical numbers illustrate just how competitive National Merit recognition is in Michigan. With a maximum possible Selection Index of 228, recent Michigan Semifinalist cutoffs of 216–220 are very near the top of the range.

For students already scoring close to this level, even a relatively modest improvement can potentially make an important difference.

Is National Merit the Same as Winning a Scholarship?

No, and this is a common source of confusion.

Being named a National Merit Commended Student, Semifinalist or Finalist is a form of academic recognition. It does not necessarily mean that a student receives scholarship money.

Semifinalists have the opportunity to advance to Finalist standing and compete for National Merit Scholarships. Scholarships include National Merit $2,500 Scholarships, corporate-sponsored scholarships and college-sponsored scholarships.

National Merit recognition can also have value beyond the scholarship itself. It is a significant academic distinction, and some colleges offer their own scholarships or other benefits to National Merit students.

Should Your Junior Prepare Specifically for the PSAT?

For some students, yes.

Not every junior needs intensive PSAT preparation. For many, the PSAT is best treated as a useful benchmark on the road toward the SAT or ACT.

But the calculation can be different for a high-scoring student. If baseline performance indicates that National Merit recognition may be within reach, targeted preparation can make sense because a relatively small improvement may make the difference.

The first step should therefore be diagnostic rather than automatic: determine where the student is currently scoring, calculate the student's Selection Index, identify the types of questions being missed, and assess whether National Merit is a realistic target.

PSAT Preparation Is Also SAT Preparation

There is another reason PSAT preparation can be worthwhile: students aren't preparing for an isolated test.

The digital PSAT/NMSQT and SAT assess many of the same Reading and Writing and Math skills and use closely related question formats. Work on grammar, reading comprehension, vocabulary in context, algebra, problem solving, data analysis, pacing and digital testing strategy can carry directly into later SAT preparation.

For a junior planning to take the SAT, preparing for the October PSAT can therefore serve two purposes: pursuing National Merit recognition while building skills for the SAT that follows.

Don’t Wait Until October to Find Out

For families wondering whether National Merit should be a realistic goal, the best time to answer that question is well before test day.

A diagnostic PSAT can help determine whether a student is already in National Merit territory, within realistic striking distance, or better served by focusing preparation primarily on the SAT or ACT.

For some juniors, the PSAT will simply be useful practice. For others, that October test could lead to National Merit recognition, one of the country's best-known academic distinctions for high school students.

College Choice Counseling provides individualized PSAT, SAT and ACT test preparation. Our approach begins by evaluating each student’s current performance and developing a preparation strategy around that student’s particular strengths, weaknesses and goals.

At College Choice Counseling®, our counselors and tutors are here to help you with college counseling, college essay and application help, test prep tutoring, and academic subject tutoring. Reach out … we’ll help you succeed!

Barbara Connolly is the Founder of College Choice Counseling®, a Certified Educational Planner (CEP), and Professional Member of the Independent Educational Consultants Association (IECA). She is a former University of Michigan Ross School of Business admissions reader with over 20 years of experience guiding students and families through highly competitive college admissions.